Why The Government Needs Probabilistic Thinkers?
The Planning Commission has embraced a forecasting technique that was made famous by energy company Shell—Scenario Planning.
In its draft 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-17) released on Wednesday, the national planning body has outlined three growth scenarios. They make for sober reading.
- The first scenario assumes that the government takes the recommended policy steps to reverse the current growth slowdown. The Indian economy could then grow at an average of 8.2% over the Plan period.- The second scenario assumes half-hearted action, when policies are endorsed but not acted upon. That would yield a growth rate of 6-6.5%.
- The third scenario is of a policy logjam. Growth would then drift down to 5-5.5%.........Read More