Chances are that you spent a considerable part of your Sunday watching the media hyperbole of election results of the four states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. And a significant reason for this frenzy is this notion that these state elections are a good harbinger for the upcoming Lok Sabha election. Is it?

The 72 Lok Sabha seats that these four states represent are a mere 13% of all seats in the lower house of Parliament and, more importantly, have had negative correlation with the results of the Lok Sabha election over the last 15 years. Read more

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