12 Years Of Shivraj Chauhan: Large Income Growth, But Infant Mortality Highest In Madhya Pradesh
In 2014-15, Madhya Pradesh (MP) was India’s fourth poorest state in terms of per capita income; it had the country’s highest infant mortality rate (51 infant deaths per 1,000 live births) and under-five mortality rate (62 child deaths before reaching age 5 per 1,000 live births) in 2015-16.
As Shivraj Singh Chauhan completed 12 years as the chief minister of MP on November 28, 2017, an IndiaSpend analysis of health, income and education data from these 12 years shows that the country’s sixth most populous state--with 72.6 million people--has made progress, but it is still one of the worst performing Indian states.
High growth rate but high inequality in rural wages
During the financial year 2005-06, when Chauhan became the state’s CM, MP was the third poorest state in the country with a per capita income of Rs 15,927, 39% lower than India’s per capita income, at 2004-05 constant prices.
In 11 years to 2016-17, MP’s per capita income grew 225% to Rs 51,852. During the same period, India’s average per capita income grew 216% from Rs 26,015 in 2005-06 to Rs 82,269 in 2016-17.
Still, MP’s per capita income was 37% below India’s, indicating that the state hasn’t been able to significantly reduce the gap.
MP had an average agricultural growth rate of 9.3% between 2005-06 and 2013-14, highest among 20 Indian states. In 2013-14, MP had an agricultural growth rate of 20%, the second highest in the country, compared to India’s agricultural growth rate of 4.7%.
But gains from this agricultural growth have been unequal. “Small and marginal farmers, who often tend to work as agricultural labourers, have not seen a significant rise in their incomes over this period,” according to a June 2017 article published by LiveMint, which analysed data on inequality, rural wages and agricultural income in Madhya Pradesh.
Further, while 10% of all farms in India were in MP in 2010-11, average farm sizes fell from 2.02 hectare in 2005-06 to 1.78 hectare in 2010-11, according to the 2010-11 agricultural census.
Source: RBI Handbook of Statistics, 2017, per capita income at (04-05) constant prices till 2010-11, afterwards at (11-12) constant prices.
Highest child mortality but 34% primary healthcare centres operated without doctors
MP’s infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U-5MR) has reduced more than India’s over the past decade, but the state did not achieve its IMR target for 2012.
In 2010, the MP state planning commission said the state would reduce the IMR to 28 per 1,000 live births during the 11th five year plan (2007-2012). In reality, the IMR reduced from 70 in 2005-06 to 51 in 2015--now close to that of Haiti, a Caribbean island that repeatedly faces natural disasters and has a per capita income lower than India’s. MP’s IMR is the highest of any state in India.
MP also had the highest U-5MR of 65 in 2015-16, a reduction from 90 in 2005-06, according to 2015-16 National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data.
Madhya Pradesh Failed To Achieve Its Goal OfReducing IMR To 28 By 2012
Source: National Family Health Survey
Even as MP has India’s highest infant and under-five mortality rates, an acute shortage of doctors affected health care delivery services, the Hindustan Times reported in June 2016.
Of 1,771 sanctioned positions for doctors in primary healthcare centres (PHCs) in the state, 46% remained vacant as of March 31, 2017. As many as 34% of PHCs were operating without a doctor in 2017, compared to 21% of PHCs in 2006. Of 309 obstetricians and gynaecologists required, only 58 were posted, indicating a shortfall of 81%. There is also a 87% shortfall of paediatricians, Health Management Information System data show.
The planning commission had also set a target to bring the child sex ratio (0-6 years) to 935 girls per 1,000 boys by 2011-12. In reality, it was 918 in 2011, lower than 932 in 2001 as per census data. MP’s overall sex ratio dropped from 961 females per 1,000 males in 2005-06 to 948 in 2015-16, much lower than India’s sex ratio of 991. Though the sex ratio at birth (girls born alive per 1,000 boys) in MP also dropped from 960 in 2005-06 to 927 in 2015-16, it is still India’s seventh best.
Increase in female literacy but still lower than India average, high school dropout rate
In 2015-16, 59% of women in MP were literate, an increase of 15 percentage points from 2005-06, when 44% were literate. In comparison, the average female literacy in India grew by 13 percentage points from 55% in 2005-06 to 68.4% in 2015-16. In 2015-16, MP’s female literacy rate was 9 percentage points lower than the all India average of 68%.
Source: National Family Health Survey
Only 14% of rural women in MP, aged 15-49 years, had completed more than 10 years of schooling in 2015-16, compared to 27% Indian rural women, according to data from the NFHS. As many as 34% of women in MP, aged 15-49 years, had never been to school, data show.
At both the upper primary and secondary school level, gross enrollment ratio for girls has fallen. At the secondary schools level (grades IX to X), the gross enrollment ratio for girls (total enrolment in secondary schools, regardless of age, as a percentage of official secondary school-age population), fell from 82% in 2013-14, to 79% in 2015-16, according to District Information System for Education (DISE) flash statistics.
Further, MP had India’s highest dropout rate among girls in upper primary school, with 10.7% girls dropping out between grades VI and VIII, versus 4.6% in India in 2014-15, according to 2015-16 DISE data.
School attendance reduces in higher classes: It is as high as 90% at ages 6-14 years in MP, but 65% at ages 15-17 years, according to the 2015-16 NFHS report.
As few as 29% of schools in MP had an electricity connection in 2015-16, fourth lowest among Indian states, according to 2015-16 DISE data. In India, 63% of all schools had electricity.
Third highest crime rate, one women raped every two hours
In 2016, MP had the third highest rate of reported crimes under the Indian Penal Code at 337.9 cases per 100,000 population, second after Delhi (974.9) and Kerala (727.6), according to data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).
MP had the fourth highest rate of reported rape cases in the country at 13.1 per 100,000 population in 2016, according to data from NCRB. One woman was raped every two hours between February 2016 and February 2017, Hindustan Times reported in November 2017 based on MP’s state legislative data for 2017.
In 2016, Indore, in western MP, had the third highest rate of reported rape cases (17.2 per 100,000), among 19 major Indian cities (average rate of reported rape cases: 9.1). The city also had the sixth highest rate of crimes in 2016 under assault on women with intent to outrage her modesty--21.3 per 100,000 compared to an average of 19.3 across the 19 cities.
In 2005-06, 46% of women in MP said they were physically or sexually abused by their spouse. After 10 years, one in three MP women have faced such violence, according to the 2015-16 NFHS data, implying a 13 percentage point reduction, more than India’s eight percentage point reduction in women facing spousal violence (from 37% in 2005-06 to 29% in 2015-16).
|MP Had India's Third Highest Crime Rate In 2016|
|Crime Head||Rank (Rate) in 2016||Rank (Rate) in 2006|
|Indian Penal Code Crimes||3rd (337.9)||5th (289.7)|
|Crimes Against Women||8th (71.1)||6th (21.3)|
|Crimes Against Children||7th (45.7)||3rd (5.9)|
Source: National Crime Records BureauNote: Rate = Cases per 100,000 population; Rank out of 30 states including Delhi
Between 2006 and 2016, rate of crime against children in MP increased from 5.9 per 100,000 to 45.7 per 100,000, which could be because of greater reporting of crime in the state or an actual increase in crime. In November 2017, the MP government approved a bill to allow capital punishment to those convicted of raping girls aged 12 and below.
(Nair is an intern with IndiaSpend.)
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