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Kejriwal Vs Modi: Fact vs Non-Fact

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Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal recently posed 16 questions to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. We decided to do a fact check on some of these questions raised by Kejriwal on the Gujarat model of economic development.

 

Agricultural Growth

 How do you claim 11% agriculture growth rate when statistics released by your Government for 2012/13 indicate that it has fallen to 1.18%?

 

It seems that Kejriwal has confused the national figureof 1.8% growth of agriculture with the state growth of the agriculture sector. In fact, agriculture sector growth in Gujarat was actually 11% in 2012-13.

 

According to Gujarat Govt. stats, agricultural output has fallen from Rs 27,815 crore in 2006/07 to Rs 25,908 crore in 2012/13.

 

As far as agricultural output is concerned, during the period 2004-05 to 2011-12(Q), GSDP for agriculture sector, including animal husbandry, has increased from Rs 26,746 crore to Rs 45,085 crore at 2004-05 (constant ) prices.

 

Farmer Suicides

 

Farmers are unhappy and are committing suicide. In recent times, 800 farmers have committed suicide in Gujarat. Why?

 

The following graph shows the number of deaths in Gujarat from the 2010 to 2012:

 

 

Data from National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) shows that farmer suicides have been increasing over the years. It can be seen that the number of suicides was 523 in 2010, and it increased to 578 in 2011 and then declined to 564. Though there has been an increase in farmer suicides, the claim made by Kejriwal of 800 suicides does not match the data of 2012. However since no proper time frame was mentioned in his question to Modi, it is possible that Kejriwal may have quoted an accumulated figure of more than one year.

 

PHCs

 

Primary healthcare centers in many villages are shut. Basic medicines are not available in many district level hospitals. Why?

 

The number of primary healthcare centers (PHCs) has increased from 1,114 in 2010-11 to 1,158 in 2011-12. Even though the Gujarat Government is not part of the centrally-sponsored Jan Aushadi programme, the Government has been investing money in making available free and affordable medicines. The Gujarat Government runs a scheme that provides medical aid for buying medicines to poor families (with an income limit of Rs 12,000) for different diseases. The graph below shows the allocation and the reach of the programme and physical achievement of the scheme from 2010 to 2012:

 

 

It can be seen that even though the Government has been reaching people with the scheme, the number of beneficiaries has been coming down, from 13,170 in 2010-11 to 7,473 in 2012-13.

 

Education

 

There are only three teachers per 600 students. Why is the state of education in Gujarat so poor?

 

Let us look at the pupil-to-teacher (PTR) ratio for different levels of education:

 

 

The claim of 600 students per teacher does not seem true. Data from District Information on School Education (DISE), a division of the Union Human Resources Ministry, shows that the Pupil-Teacher Ratio (defined as total enrolment in schools divided by total teachers) is a teacher for 31 students in primary and upper primary schools. In secondary schools, there is a teacher for 34 students, and similarly there is a teacher for 29 students in higher secondary.

 

Rural Electrification

 

You claim electricity in every village. Your government is sitting on over 4 lakh applications from farmers for electricity connections.

 

 

Gujarat has electrified 90% of its households while 84% of its rural households have electricity.
Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission (GERC), in one of its proceedings, has mentioned that there are more than 3 lakh connections pending for agricultural purposes with the commission.

  1. satishkumar111 Reply

    March 11, 2014 at 6:02 pm

    Modi multiply his stats with what we gujarartis call Faking Factor – it ranges anywhere from 50% to 1000%. In this case Modi’s faking factor was 99%

  2. Gu'an Reply

    March 11, 2014 at 8:02 pm

    Looks like Ambani/Adani money has reached India Spend too!!

    In your very first point supporting Modi on agriculture, the source you gave does not even cover the fiscal year 2012-13 figures which is what Kejriwal quoted! Even if we neglect that fact, your source says (on page-19): “The foodgrains production recorded a decreased of around 8 lakh tonnes in the year 2011-12 compared to the production in the year 2010-11”. The 11% growth between 2000 and 2010 was because of an unusually drought year in 1999/00 which gives a low base to feku’s claims.

    For a more detailed (and up to date until 2012/13) stats, google “Gujarat agricultural production in last five years: Foodgrains growth 3.27 per cent, cotton 2.45 per cent, oilseeds (-) 2.71 per cent” on counterview.

    Also, Modi’s gujarat ranks 15th among large states in government spending on social sector as a share of its total budgetary expenditure. This was stated in the Reserve Bank of India(RBI) report titled “State Finance A study of Budgets of 2012-13-State wise Social Sector Expenditure to Total Expenditure”.

    For a detailed look at Gujarat’s health and education, google and read “Narendra Modi’s turf flops on education, health” that came in yesterday’s ToI.

    • Arya Reply

      April 18, 2014 at 8:07 pm

      you aaptards should be happy it is giving so much publicity to failure aap when others can compete with modi and Rahul Gandhi like nitish kumar,jayalalitha,mamta banerjee,naveen patnaik,bhupinder singh hooda not kejriwal

  3. IndiaSpend Reply

    March 12, 2014 at 3:40 am

    Dear Gu’an, we would hate to lose an admirer like you ! Particularly since you’ve taken the trouble to go through the numbers. And we respect anyone who does that.
    We pride ourselves in being ubiased & non aligned as you would see from earlier Fact Checks we’ve done, including on Gujarat.
    We are checking source data again and will post a response by second half today. Am sure you will understand that source data will not include or reference newspaper reports such as the one you’ve quoted. Do keep the feedback coming !

    Editor

    • Gu'an Reply

      March 12, 2014 at 4:06 am

      Thanks. Will wait for your response.

      Note that the ToI article I cited data sources for its education and health stats, and perhaps you can do an independent verification of those numbers?

      As for agriculture, the CounterView article I cited includes agri data from 2003/04, and they seem to match with the Socio Ecomic Review report you cited (table on page-24) for the years that have the data. It would be nice if you can pull in data for 2012/13 and cross-check with CounterView’s (and Kejriwal).

      • indiaspend Reply

        March 12, 2014 at 9:57 am

        Hi Gu’an,

        Thank you once again for your feedback. To clarify on the points that you wanted us to check.

        The source that we have mentioned is from the Socio-Economic Review 2012-13 and is of latest available data source from the Gujarat Govt. The agri-growth of 11 % mentioned in our articles is for the year 2011-12 and not 2012-13. The reason for us earlier mentioning 2012-13 was because the Economic Review is of 2012-13. Please see Table 2.2 on page 9 of the report for the agri growth.

        It is likely that a high growth figure might be on the back of a drought but these factors apply everywhere. Our fact check was on the figure and not the circumstances leading to it. That you will agree is a totally different debate. Moreover, the original question did not provide this context either.

        While Mr Kejriwal has quoted a figure of 1.18 per cent, we have no idea on where he got this number but as per our report, we have said that he could have confused this with the national figure of 1.8 percent growth of agriculture.

        • Gu'an Reply

          March 12, 2014 at 3:30 pm

          Well, yes, I dont agree! Because the table that you mentioned (table 2.2) clearly states that those percentages are sectoral contributions to state GDP, not their annual growth!!

          • ak Reply

            March 20, 2014 at 8:50 am

            As per ASSOCHAM report the growth is in double digits till 2011-12. (No one denying that).
            And as per the data i have seen the last years growth was less.
            So not only Mr. kejri telling the half truth (the emphasis was on rate not on year), he is distorting it.

            Lets say Gujarat has ONE of the highest growth rate in agriculture (cumulative from 2000) and leave it at that .
            As far kejri goes, let him say what eh wants, after all he doesn’t seem to be well versed in economics and policy gyaan

            • Gu'an Reply

              March 20, 2014 at 3:43 pm

              ASSOCHAM figure of 10.97% for gujarat was for the years 2000/01 to 2009/10 (for the same years Maharashtra’s figure was 10.40%). Modi’s tenure was from 2002 till now. The data I have cited above is for this period of Modi, which clearly shows a different picture. So, years are as important as percentages themselves. If the growth was high during earlier years of Modi and has declined in latter years, it only further exposes Modi false hypes. Sure, gujarat is one among many fast developing states and it has been that way since late 1980s. We are here to discuss what exactly are Modi’s contributions.

              • ak Reply

                March 20, 2014 at 4:14 pm

                No. Years are important (and thats why Kejri dint elaborate).
                2 things are important. The growth rate.If someone say it was larger at the initial (which it was during modi govt), people would say it was because of draught, and baseline dipped.
                second point is absolute growth. if i say it kept on increasing (no dip), people would say what about the rates every year.
                Both have to be seen together. Sustaining growth is also a commendable job (whereas many parts of India growth dipped) ..lets not talk about Maha, because the failure of Maha in agricultural reform is well known.
                Abut Modi’s contribution, for that may be you should see the number of orjects started by state, commendable work done by them. Even UN, Planning Commission, Central govt lauded that.
                Now even after all these you want to look other way, then may be you would be more happy else where
                By the way recently a study by AAP’s economic panel member Laveesh Bhandari put gujarat on top in terms of economic freedom

                • Gu'an Reply

                  March 20, 2014 at 11:36 pm

                  There is a lot of sermonizing in your comment, but no hard data. State your point in brief, with figures (and citations) to back it up. As for growth declining, the agriculture output figures that I cited above shows negative growth too. Of course, it needs to be seen in comparison to other states, but the double-digit hype can safely be struck off from Modi’s propaganda.

                  For my views on that economic freedom index, see here: disq .us /8hnj6x (remove space)

                  • ak Reply

                    March 21, 2014 at 2:21 am

                    Well my data points are same as ASSOCHAM, and my conclusion are same as ASSOCHAM. There is nothing more added to it (or removed from it).
                    Political posturing often doesn’t tell you the full truth.The double digit is a fact and no 1 can strike it off (for that period). Even if you include the latest figure Gujarat would be well placed (easy to calculate).
                    As for YoY agricultural growth:- let be pragmatic, YoY figure doesn’t do justice to economic indicators like this. One has to do it over 3Y-5Y-10Y. Also putting drought year as a final year in Prof Dholakia’s papers is akin to skewing the results (which to be honest even i have done in my student years). So we need to separate them out
                    Hopefully i will publish mine pretty soon

                    Obviously Modi will hype his achievements (thats what politics is all about), the same is the case for opposition like Kejri (who would skew the facts as it suits him)

                    As far as economic freedom index goes,i find your argument is actually FOR the state.Systematic barrier anyways are more of a scio-economic indicators which are more affected by central policies around it.If it was not part of the study, then why discredit whatever they have studied.

                    • Gu'an

                      March 21, 2014 at 10:10 pm

                      The double digit is a fact and no 1 can strike it off (for that period).

                      Only that the period for that is not the same as Modi’s rule. If you take 2002 onwards, the double-digit hype bubble gets burst.

                      I am not arguing for the state, but arguing that the economic freedom index is a partial metric, and inter-generational income elasticity is a better indicator.

                    • Sri Murthy

                      March 22, 2014 at 3:49 am

                      Just out of curiosity, is inter-generational income elasticity applicable to states in India? I thought the wages in India were way out of control and artificially inflated and there was a jump gap. Especially for the period on which you are discussing 2002-2010 the wage map across India would be like a dispersion graph, wouldn’t it?

                    • Gu'an

                      March 26, 2014 at 8:11 pm

                      India’s Income distribution is highly dispersed, but same as some developed countries like USA, with Gini coefficient ~0.4. But I cant see a reason why elasticity measure, which is the regression coefficient in plot of Log(parent income) vs Log(child income), should not apply to Indian states.

                      Even if the log-log plot is not linear enough, we can use other curves to fit, only that we may not be able to easily compare with other countries’ linear log-log plot.

                    • Sri Murthy

                      March 26, 2014 at 10:42 pm

                      There are several indicators showing disconnect when considering Gini coeff for India.
                      1. Rules of outflow and inflow of foreign currencies are changed between breakfast and lunch in India. I hear some highest level politicians have half their wealth made from short selling. They tweak rules to suit their timing. I am not speaking in terms of (lacs of crores) but in (crores or crores). This would have distorted the the figure based on the paths these monies were routed/invested through.
                      2. Our ageing population is being split into categories. (a) Pension figures are still in 4 digits for a majority of the pensioners. (b) Second major group are left to fend for themselves (c) third groups are being paid for by their children abroad. (d) very small group have secured their savings. This data would be from the past 15 yrs and not prior to that.
                      3. I believe India is past the half way mark to the Hans Rosling population growth stagnation theory.
                      4. Fresh graduates from universities today are demanding 25K salary as base starting salary. Development has occurred only in concentrated pocket areas. Outside these areas the salary graphs are not so steep. And MGNREGA has bought down productivity in many rural areas.

                      To add to the woes, the reconciliation of taxes and returns is non existent in India. Whatever data is available is skewed. How can any comparison with western countries who have centralised revenue systems and population planning data available be made, with the skewed sparse data India has?

                      Unless some massive change in governance happens and people elect based on the awareness of the economic implications of the policies made, I dont think 70% of India’s population will achieve economic freedom ever. But with the change nearby it may take 20-30 years if the change is sustained throughout. Pl do correct me if I am wrong

                    • Gu'an

                      March 27, 2014 at 8:15 pm

                      I believe the income data is based on self-reported surveys (NSSO and Census). So yes, it is likely that Gini coeff is an underestimate, given that upper quartile people will not disclose their black-money income.

                      On inter-generational social (including income, education etc) elasticity, there is a nice paper on it, albeit only for OECD countries: www oecd org/eco/growth/49849281 pdf (replace spaces with dots)

                      There are experts that governments co-opt for committees and reports, but then the decision at the end of the day will be a political one, and we know the kind and intent of politicians who sit in our parliament and assemblies. Hopefully this should change soon!

                    • Sri Murthy

                      March 28, 2014 at 11:19 am

                      I ve worked on policy reforms research for a tier 1 western country. I cannot agree less on the fact that at the end of the day it comes down to political will and compromises.
                      But from where I see, I dont think the political will and intent alone is sufficient. The bureaucracy that assists the political will does not share the same will and intent. Most of the bureaucracy are so good at giving advise at skewing data to suit policies. But when asked on how to set right the wrongs done, there is a disquiet. Because the data has been skewed for so long and practices have been in place to suit the populist governance policies, its kind of near impossible to reverse the damages done without manufacturing an economic crisis. There needs to be a parallel restructuring in the bureaucratic practices as well. Policies should made irreversible if performance results are on track, and made reversible at checkpoints if targets are not met.
                      Whilst the will of politicians is paramount, the lack of awareness about the roles that the assisting bureaucracy plays is scary. Politicians are made scape goats and bureaucracy go scot free. Both cannot have accountability, so I am still pondering and how this can be worked out. Can both of them be made accountable to people? Have you come across any government models which work in such manner? I am keen to do some research on those models if available. Thanks for the discussion.

              • manu Reply

                March 20, 2014 at 9:26 pm

                Please quote your sources for the Maharastra’s agricuotural growth. Thanks

                • Gu'an Reply

                  March 20, 2014 at 11:28 pm

                  That same ASSOCHAM report.

  4. Ved Prakash Reply

    March 21, 2014 at 9:57 am

    CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CIA Balkanization plan to destabilize India Out -Why Independent Media is India’s Greatest Strength ? First Russia, then Egypt, then Syria, then Ukraine – all countries fell prey to CIA plan of Hooliganism, anarchy and Final Balkanization – India is a tought Nut – Even with the support of Traitors Like Kejru and Prashant Bhushan (the Kashmiri Independence Protagonist)and some Reporters such as Punya Prasoon Joshi – CIA is not able to buy and coax all the media houses – Indians Beware – Balkanization plan of India is ready to be played by CIA and ISI- WHILE China spreads and help Maoists in 130 districts CIA plans to use traitors like Kejru to upstage a democratic Government and create Hooliganism and Anarchy and Finally dividing India into many parts – That’s why he has Peoples like – Vinayak sen, Sabhyasachi sen, SONI sori – all helping Kejru in creating Urban Maoism – all terrorists ultimately go to AAP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    • Gu'an Reply

      March 26, 2014 at 8:13 pm

      And hence we need to vote people in Team Modi, like Yeddyurappa, Radadia, Hukum Singh, Pokhiriyal, Ram Vilas Paswan etc , so that India is in safe hands!

  5. Gu'an Reply

    April 18, 2014 at 9:02 pm

    Agri GNDP from your link itself:
    Bihar: 238 Billion Rs in 2007-08 and 306 in 2011-12 (ie. 28%)
    Gujarat: 406 Billion Rs in 2007-08 and 461 in 2011-12 (ie. 13%)

    Majestic growth by Modi, indeed.

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